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English :
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A comparative study of methods of sampling and predicting the productivity of the cotton crop in the Arab Republic of Egypt
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Arabic :
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دراسة مقارنة لطرق المعاينة والتنبؤ بالإنتاجية لمحصول القطن فى جمهورية مصر العربية
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| Abstract |
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• M. Sc. in Agricultural Science (Agricultural Economics): Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, Al Azhar University, 2006.
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The thesis dealt with the most important methods of estimating cotton yield in Egypt in terms of accuracy, degree of confidence and timeliness, as well as a comparison between these methods in terms of the degree of efficiency in the estimates and reducing the expenditures spent on conducting the methods of estimating samples nationwide. The forecasting of productivity at the level of the Republic during the study period (1992-2004) is more accurate, followed by the sampling method, followed by the estimation of the evaluation committees, then the estimation of the agricultural directorates, which were the least accurate in comparison with the actual miller estimate. Mean squares errors (RMSE).
Through measuring the efficiency of the estimation methods, it became clear from a statistical equal scale (U2) and the relative absolute error scale (RAE) Nayef's model that the most efficient method for estimating the productivity of the cotton crop in Egypt is to predict productivity in terms of the accuracy of the estimate, saving costs, and early to give an indication of the expected production volume in light of Availability of data on cultivated areas in Egypt for the purpose of drawing up the export policy of the crop in terms of early contracts for export with a comparative advantage in high export prices, and studying the cotton price policy in Egypt to provide the need for the local demand of cotton. As shown by the study of the sample in Gharbia Governorate, the results of the governorate matched with The results of the statistical and economic analysis of the methods of productivity prediction, the sampling method, the estimation of the committees and the estimation of the Directorate of Agriculture, with the estimation of productivity in Egypt in terms of the accuracy and efficiency of the method of predicting productivity from the rest of the estimation methods, which contributes to increasing the volume of Egyptian cotton exports and increasing the national income from foreign currencies.
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| Publication year |
2012
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| Availability location |
مكتبة معهد بحوث الاقتصاد الزراعي-7 ش نادى الصيد - مبنى الهيئات والشركات - الدقي- الجيزة (الدور الرابع)
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| Availability number |
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| Organization Name |
Agricultural Economics Research Institute (AERI)
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| Country |
Egypt
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| Publisher |
Name:
كلية الزراعة - جامعة الأزهر
Place:
القاهرة - مصر
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| Author(s) from ARC |
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| Publication Type |
Master Thesis
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